Memecoin Supercycle: How high can POPCAT pop?
Let’s Look Closely At The King Of All Cat Coins
Among memecoins, dog-themed memes are historical winners. However, for the first time, we have POPCAT, a cat-themed meme, as a frontrunner in the Memecoin Supercycle. But just how big can POPCAT get?
The Solana ecosystem is witnessing explosive growth as memes continue to outperform all other crypto assets within and outside Solana. We are in the Memecoin Supercycle, and within this cycle, two narratives have proven to be particularly successful: dogs and cats.
The dog narrative has been a longstanding favourite in the world of memecoins. Dogecoin, the original dog-themed meme, has paved the way for many other dog-inspired tokens.
The cat narrative is a recent addition to the memecoin scene but has quickly gained traction. And among the cat-coins, POPCAT stands clear as a winner in this new category.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. You are responsible for any capital-related decisions you make, and only you are accountable for the results.
A quick recap on POPCAT
What is POPCAT?
It’s simply a cat that pops! That’s all.
This is a memecoin, and like we said in the report on WIF, “It makes no promises. It WON'T advance the frontiers of civilisation; it CAN'T activate a paradigm shift at the intersection of finance and technology; it is NOT a next-gen anything.”
POPCAT was created as a light-hearted memecoin, drawing on the viral popularity of the “POPCAT” meme—a cartoon cat known for its humorous, popping mouth expression.
However, despite its humorous origins, this memecoin is quickly establishing itself as a top contender within Solana and across the broader crypto market.
Understanding the POPCAT meme
The world is divided into cat lovers and dog lovers.
Historically, dog-themed memecoins have dominated the space, with coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu capturing significant attention and market cap.
However, we thought it was only fair that there’d be a meme coin for cat lovers, which was the basis of our December 2023 call to add POPCAT to your bags.
POPCAT is a popular internet meme and clicker game. The game involves clicking on an image of a cat named Oatmeal to make it open and close its mouth in the shape of an 'O'. Each click contributes to the player's score and adds to their country's total on a global leaderboard.
The game gained significant attention and became viral, especially in countries like Russia, the USA, and Australia.
POPCAT is the rising star in the Solana ecosystem, and it has been recording organic along the road – this organic growth is a rarity in the memecoin landscape where many coins rely heavily on marketing hype and artificial pumps.
POPCAT is more than just a memecoin; it represents the new breed of community-driven memecoins capable of appealing to dog-loving segments and tapping into cat lovers' feelings.
The bullish case for POPCAT
Market potential
The market potential of POPCAT is quite intriguing, especially considering the recent surge in the popularity of memecoins.
One of the most compelling aspects of POPCAT is its unique "cat" narrative. While there have been numerous dog-themed memecoins, the cat theme is fresh and new, setting POPCAT apart in a crowded market. This distinct narrative helps it capture and sustain the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. By tapping into the untapped "cat" narrative and capitalising on the Solana ecosystem's advantages, POPCAT is well-positioned to ride the wave of memecoin popularity.
First cat to $1b
Up until this cycle, cat memecoins were not a prominent trend. Their narrative had not been validated in the way dog-themed coins, such as Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, had been. And more importantly, no cat-themed memecoin has ever breached the $1 billion threshold – until POPCAT did it on July 21, 2024.
POPCAT was the first cat-coin to break the billy curse, and that alone is enough momentum to build a conviction that this coin is a contender, not a pretender.
Why is the $1b mark a significant milestone?
When a memecoin surpasses a market capitalisation of $1 billion, it signifies that the trend has not only emerged but also gained substantial acceptance and legitimacy within the crypto community. Hitting that market cap also confirms to HNIs, institutional participants, and tier-one crypto exchanges that the memecoin is worthy of their attention and time.
POPCAT's hitting the $1 price target embedded in the collective consciousness that cat-themed coins are capable of being in the “big league.”
Further, in memecoins, the price itself is a fundamental aspect that reinforces the belief in its narrative. In other words, the higher the price goes, the more likely it is for the price to continue growing.
Therefore, the $1b mark is important as it can be a precedent for reaching an escape velocity, establishing the winner as a top cat coin for multiple cycles ahead.
POPCAT is a true community coin
In its early stages, POPCAT faced coordination challenges between the community and developers. Recognising its potential, a prominent member of the Solana community acquired the rights to POPCAT. Following the acquisition, the new owner made the metadata of POPCAT immutable, ensuring that no changes could be made to its name, image, or token supply—even by the acquirer. This transformation marked a pivotal moment for POPCAT, solidifying its status as an immutable community-driven meme coin. With over 65,000 holders currently, the promotion and fate of POPCAT rest solely in the hands of its dedicated community.
We expect the community to grow further, reach escape velocity, and achieve a strong network of holders who will establish the coin as a top cat memecoin for multiple cycles ahead.
POPCAT is not a mindless gamble
All memecoins are speculative, but there’s a difference between blind gambling and strategic memecoin investing.
In mindless gambling, you are just throwing money at every coin with a memecoin tag and hoping that one of them wins enough to more than makeup for your losses on the others.
With a strategic approach, you use qualitative reasoning and quants to understand what makes memecoins valuable and then choose a coin with higher odds of success. Here are some factors that elevate POPCAT from a mindless gamble to a strategic play.
Strong narrative
Our initial thesis for POPCAT was that the world is divided into cat lovers and dog lovers. And that when Asia wakes up to the memecoins, they would prefer cats and not go for dogs.
In various Asian cultures, cats are often associated with positive attributes such as luck, fortune, and prosperity. Knowing their psychometric properties, we suggested their preferences when they make their next moves.
Indeed, 80% of memecoin trades occur during Asian trading hours, suggesting there are a lot of participants from Asia, which can indirectly explain the rise of cat memecoin in recent times.
However, the thesis for the POPCAT is starting to change. The narrative is shifting from “Beta for WIF” and the Asian market to a standalone narrative for POPCAT.
It is now being spoken out as “DOGE of cats” and the first cat to break a billy curse. This massive improvement for the narrative and potential upside.
Fair distribution
POPCAT has launched with a total supply of 1 billion tokens. These tokens have been fairly distributed through the natural memecoin cycle.
Notably, its broad distribution—boasting over 65,000 unique holders—exemplifies its commitment to decentralisation, ensuring that the community controls the supply rather than a select few influencers or celebrities.
Throughout its journey, POPCAT has experienced several market-driven 80% drawdowns, followed by significant recoveries. These fluctuations have inadvertently tested the community's resilience and commitment, revealing those with "diamond hands” and laying the foundation for organic growth.
The memecoin's natural cycles of drawdowns and recoveries have played a crucial role in shaping the community. These challenges have helped to identify and reward the most steadfast holders, those who believe in the long-term potential of POPCAT, which is quite rare among memecoin communities.
Further, like WIF, it has no VCs, team, or insiders. Its distribution is simple, pure, and fair.
A winning asset in a winning sector
POPCAT has distinguished itself in the memecoin landscape through genuine, organic growth from the outset, setting it apart in an ecosystem often fueled by hype and fleeting speculation. This strategy safeguards against manipulative practices commonly associated with quick profit schemes.
Having transitioned beyond its speculative inception, POPCAT has reached the status of a blue-chip memecoin. This positioning suggests a favourable risk-reward balance with considerable potential for growth while the inherent risks diminish. Memecoins, with their viral nature and ability to capture public interest, have so far outperformed their technologically advanced counterparts, drawing capital and liquidity away from them.
POPCAT, in particular, is among the top winners in capitalising on this trend, siphoning market share from other altcoins and outpacing them during this cycle.
Valuation exercise + price targets
POPCAT’s fate is closely intertwined with WIF’s performance, and WIF’s fate is intertwined with SOL's price and DOGE’s historical performance.
We have a bull-case $40 price expectation for WIF at the peak of this bull run. If things get unbelievably crazy, we think there’s a chance WIF pulls off DOGE’s historical performance to reach an $88 billion market cap or $88 token price.
Whether WIF hits $40 or $88, we are confident POPCAT wouldn’t be too far behind.
Based on historical ratios, we have several scenarios.
The lowest WIF/POPCAT ratio is 3.125
The highest WIF/POPCAT ratio is 23.75
The average price differential between WIF and POPCAT is 13.38
Take WIF at $40
Now, let’s estimate the potential price of POPCAT, taking $40 WIF as the anchor price.
Scenario 1: If we take the highest WIF to POPCAT ratio (historically), we will get $1.68per POPCAT if WIF reaches $40 (40/23.75 = $1.68).
This result would suggest a roughly 2.95xupside from current POPCAT prices. However, we think this scenario is unlikely as it doesn’t take into account POPCAT’s recent strength and grossly underestimates POPCAT relative to WIF.
Scenario 2: If we take the average of the lowest and highest WIF to POPCAT ratios, the price differential would be 13.38 ((23.75 + 3.125) / 2 = 13.38). Doing math with that differential would result in $2.99 for POPCAT if WIF reaches $40 (40/13.38 = $2.99).
This result suggests a 5.25x upside potential for POPCAT from the current prices. Though possible, we also think this scenario has a low probability of playing out because the average doesn’t factor in the cultural significance of POPCAT as the first cat to $1b.
Scenario 3: If we take the lowest WIF to POPCAT ratio (historically), we will get $12.80per POPCAT if WIF reaches $40 (40/3.125 = $12.80).
This result would suggest a 22.46x upside potential from current POPCAT prices. This scenario is possible, with slight potential deviations up or down. This scenario assumes that WIF and POPCAT continue to show strength at a consistent pace.
Scenario 4: There’s a mind-blowing scenario where things get silly, and POPCAT continues to outperform WIF in terms of price action. For that scenario, we will halve the lowest historical WIF to POPCAT ratio (1.5625). If this were to happen, we could potentially see POPCAT at $25.60 if WIF reaches $40 (40/1.5625 = $25.60).
This scenario suggests roughly 44.91x upside potential from current POPCAT prices. While exciting, we think it is a low-probability scenario.
POPCAT's price with WIF at $40
Take WIF at $88
Now, let’s estimate the potential price of POPCAT, taking $88 WIF as the anchor price.
Scenario 1: If we take the highest WIF to POPCAT ratio (historically), we will get $3.71per POPCAT if WIF reaches $88 (88/23.75 = $3.71).
This result would suggest a roughly 6.51xupside from current POPCAT prices. However, we think this scenario is unlikely as it doesn’t take into account POPCAT’s recent strength and grossly underestimates POPCAT relative to WIF.
Scenario 2: If we take the average of the lowest and highest WIF to POPCAT ratios, the price differential would be 13.38 ((23.75 + 3.125) / 2 = 13.38). Doing math with that differential would result in a $6.58 price for POPCAT if WIF reaches $88 (88/13.38 = $6.58).
This result suggests an 11.54x upside potential for POPCAT from the current prices. Though possible, we also think this scenario has a low probability of playing out because the average doesn’t factor in the cultural significance of POPCAT as the first cat to $1b.
Scenario 3: If we take the lowest WIF to POPCAT ratio (historically), we will get $28.16per POPCAT if WIF reaches $88 (88/3.125 = $28.16).
This result would suggest a 49.40x upside potential from current POPCAT prices. This scenario is possible, with slight potential deviations up or down. This scenario assumes that WIF and POPCAT continue to show strength at a consistent pace.
Scenario 4: There’s a mind-blowing scenario where things get silly, and POPCAT continues to outperform WIF in terms of price action. For that scenario, we will halve the lowest historical WIF to POPCAT ratio (1.5625). If this were to happen, we could potentially see POPCAT at $56.32 if WIF reaches $88 (88/1.5625 = $56.32).
This scenario suggests roughly 98.80x upside potential from current POPCAT prices. While exciting, we think it is a low-probability scenario.
POPCAT's price with WIF at $88
So, TMG, what are the definitive price targets on POPCAT?
Base case: $4 (7.02x)
Scenario reference: This price target aligns with WIF's "highest historical ratio" at $88, which gives a price of $3.71.
Rationale: We apply a slight premium to $3.71, reflecting POPCAT's recent market strength and potential to outperform historical norms. This target is conservative, factoring in growing interest in POPCAT as WIF continues to set new highs.
Bull case: $10 (17.54x)
Scenario reference: This price target is between the "lowest historical ratio" from WIF at $40 ($12.80) and the "average historical ratio" from WIF at $88 ($6.58).
Rationale: This target assumes a strong, but not extreme, outperformance by POPCAT, driven by positive market sentiment and potential catalysts. The $10 target represents a moderate discount on the $12.80 scenario, accounting for potential market fluctuations.
Best case: $40 (70.18x)
Scenario reference: This price target lies between the "lowest historical ratio" and "extreme outperformance" scenarios from WIF at $88.
Rationale: This target anticipates significant outperformance driven by a major shift in market dynamics or cultural significance. The $40 target applies a premium to the $28.16 scenario, considering a scenario where POPCAT becomes a market phenomenon without assuming the most extreme outcome.
Risks to consider before buying POPCAT
Market risks
Narrative-driven: Memecoins lack any utility in the traditional sense of this word. The price is driven by narrative and future expectations of profit. However, when market sentiments shift or the narrative loses momentum, memecoins can lose value drastically.
Volatility: Crypto is volatile. However, memecoins are volatile-squared. As mentioned earlier, a memecoin can go 80% down in a matter of days. This extreme volatility can be attributed to their speculative nature, driven primarily by hype and market sentiment rather than underlying value or utility. The rapid and significant price swings can lead to substantial losses, making it a high-risk investment.
Enduring such corrections and not losing conviction can be a tough nut to crack. It requires a strong understanding of the market dynamics, a clear investment strategy, and the ability to manage emotions in the face of extreme volatility. However, since POPCAT is among the top 100 coins by market cap, volatility has drastically decreased for the asset. Massive price swings are rarer compared to other memecoins.
Regulatory risks
Generally speaking, there is no clear regulatory framework for memecoins. The SEC and other regulatory bodies could potentially target memecoins, especially those perceived as securities or involving fraudulent activities. The lack of clear rules and oversight can create uncertainty and risk for investors. However, the good news for POPCAT is that it is fully community-owned. There is no single point of failure or chokepoint, and no team of developers promised to deliver any utility to the coin or increase its price. This decentralised ownership structure could potentially shield POPCAT from regulatory scrutiny, as it is not controlled by any single entity that could be held liable.
Conviction tracker: Eyes on the ball
Similar to WIF, the thesis for POPCAT has never been stronger; however, we need to keep our minds open if new information or narrative emerges that would challenge our thesis on POPCAT. Here is what we are keeping our eyes on:
Number of holders
A significant and sustained decrease in the number of holders would indicate a bearish shift, as investors might be losing interest or confidence in POPCAT, leading them to sell off their holdings. This would mean that community members are abandoning the meme, which can be detrimental to POPCAT's success.
So far, the number of holders has consistently increased, supporting our bullish thesis on POPCAT.
Social sentiment
A decline in positive sentiment or an increase in negative sentiment on social media can be a precursor to a bearish trend. It reflects the community's less favourable outlook, which can influence the broader market sentiment. So far, the sentiment has been predominantly positive, with POPCAT's mindshare trending up.
Narrative trend
Negative changes in the narrative can erode investor confidence and contribute to a bearish outlook. Such changes include unfavourable regulatory news, the saturated memecoin market, or bad actors such as influencers/celebrities damaging the image of memes as pure speculative assets. During this cycle, the narrative has been strong in memecoins. However, we are constantly monitoring whether there is a shift in stories people tell and mindshare.
Invalidation criteria
Based on the factors we are monitoring above, here’s how we might frame the invalidation criteria for our thesis on POPCAT:
Macro environment
Significant changes in the broader economic environment can adversely affect speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. Crypto falls into the high-risk end of the risk curve; therefore, monitoring the broader economic environment is crucial.
Indicators could include aggressive tightening of monetary policies, political and geographical instabilities, or wider economic slowdowns and recessions.
Big players selling
If there's evidence of large-scale selling by major holders or early investors, this can be monitored through blockchain explorers. We are actively tracking major holders and early players. A major shift in their conviction can indicate the tide shift in the explosive growth of POPCAT.
Narrative shift
The emergence of negative themes such as stringent regulatory changes affecting memecoins, a saturation of the memecoin market, or detrimental actions by influential holders. Confirmation of these themes in major news outlets or a measurable decline in positive mentions could invalidate the current positive outlook.
Sustained cannibalisation from other cat coins
As cat-themed coins are gaining traction, multiple competing memes in the market are fighting for attention and liquidity. Despite POPCAT's current dominance, the battle for supremacy among cat-themed coins is far from over. Several other meme coins are aggressively positioning themselves to capture market share. Therefore, despite our confidence in POPCAT, the pressure from other cat-themed memecoins should not be neglected.
How to buy POPCAT
1. Buying on a centralised exchange
Step 1: Choose a centralised exchange
Step 2: Create and verify your account
Sign up for an account on the chosen exchange and go through the verification process,
Step 3: Deposit funds
Deposit funds into your exchange account. You can typically use bank transfers, credit/debit cards, or cryptocurrency transfers.
Check the exchange's supported payment methods if you are depositing fiat currency (like USD or EUR).
Step 4: Buy POPCAT
Navigate to the trading section of the exchange.
Search for the POPCAT trading pair (e.g., POPCAT/USDT, POPCAT/SOL)
Decide on the amount of SOL you want to purchase and choose between a market or limit order.
Market order: Buy POPCAT at the current market price.
Limit order: Set a specific price at which you want to buy POPCAT. The order will be fulfilled once the market reaches your specified price.
Review the order details and confirm the purchase.
Step 5: Withdraw POPCAT to your wallet
After purchasing POPCAT, it's a good practice to withdraw the tokens to a secure wallet like Phantom for safekeeping.
2. Buying via Phantom wallet
Step 1: Install Phantom wallet
Download and install the Phantom wallet extension for your browser from the official Phantom website.
Create a new wallet or import an existing one using your recovery phrase.
Step 2: Secure your wallet
Write down and securely store your recovery phrase. This phrase is crucial for recovering your wallet in case of loss or device failure.
Step 3: Fund your Phantom wallet
Deposit POPCAT directly into your Phantom wallet by transferring it from a centralised exchange where you've purchased POPCAT.
Alternatively, deposit other Solana-supported tokens stablecoins like USDT or USDC if you plan to swap them for POPCAT.
Step 4: Use the built-in swap feature
Open the Phantom wallet and navigate to the "Swap" tab.
Choose the token you wish to swap (e.g., USDT) and select POPCAT as the output.
POPCAT contract address: 7GCihgDB8fe6KNjn2MYtkzZcRjQy3t9GHdC8uHYmW2hr
Enter the amount you want to swap and review the transaction details, including the estimated network fees.
Confirm the transaction and approve it within the Phantom wallet.
Step 5: Verify the transaction
Once the transaction is complete, you'll see the updated POPCAT balance in your Phantom wallet.
TMG’s take
We’ve always argued that you can’t evaluate memecoins using the same fundamental metrics used to evaluate altcoins. POPCAT is a winner – there’s no doubt about it.
POPCAT has positioned itself as a significant player in the Solana ecosystem, leveraging the network's high-speed transactions and lower fees to attract a broad user base. This strategic positioning enhances its appeal and makes it more accessible to a wider audience.
POPCAT is a rising star in the Solana ecosystem, and it is rapidly gaining traction as a prominent memecoin. POPCAT's market performance has been stellar. An impressive price increase reflects strong investor confidence and market acceptance. We remain extremely bullish on POPCAT's potential in the 2024/25 cycle, seeing it as the strongest candidate to become a top cat coin for multiple cycles ahead.
Don’t fumble the bag.